![]() We included the average finishing time and high temperature in Auburn for context. Let’s start with the model that predicts winning times assuming that the year’s winner never existed, since Marshall thinks it’s the fairest to outliers. She won Western States 14 times, in bonkers performances that put her in the overall top-6 8 times. Now we have the context to think about the immortal Ann Trason. The second model just drops the winning time in a single year (“What would have happened in 2019 had Jim missed that year?”).The first model drops the winning times of every year that athlete won the race (“What would have happened in 2019 had Jim Walmsley not existed?”).What a boss! It’ll be a shame when his cerebellum is used to power microwaves in Albuquerque. Marshall dealt with the problem by creating two models and letting us decide. How do we deal with athletes who have won multiple editions of the race? For example, Jim Walmsley’s 2018 performance could theoretically make his 2019 performance seem less remarkable since he’s competing against himself in the analysis. RELATED: Editors’ Picks: The Best of Western States Clare Gallagher at the 2019 Western States 100. So even though this is just a thought experiment, it’s coming from Marshall’s brain, which could be hooked up to a turbine to power a medium-sized city. ![]() And controlling for field average is probably better than controlling for average time in top-10 or top-20, since a fast leader might cause the elite times to be faster.Ī model that considers the progression of performances over time and field average time explains greater than 75% of the variation in winning times. Marshall’s rationale is that the overall gender-specific average is going to pick up the temperature effect and anything else that made that day fast or slow (snow, boats, mountain lions, Mercury in retrograde, etc.). It’s akin to a simplified Wins Above Replacement, comparing the winner to the middle of the pack. For each year starting in 1985, he built a model from all the other years but not that year, and predicted what would have happened in that year given the overall trend in times and the overall field average performance on that day. ![]() Here’s how Marshall conducted the thought experiment to determine the best performances ever. For some reason, this makes me so, so happy.) (Also, fun fact: Barry Bonds is an avid cyclist on Strava. In ultrarunning, Ann Trason is Babe Ruth, but better. 609 in 2004, when the league average was. For comparison, in those years when Barry Bonds took steroids and broke the entire game of baseball (for context, his on base percentage was. The aforementioned Wins Above Replacement aims to quantify how many wins a player adds to their team relative to a solid player that the team could theoretically add from the minor leagues. In 1920, Babe Ruth hit 54 home runs, at a time when no other team in the league hit more than 50. RELATED: 2023 Western States 100 Preview Ann Trason is the Babe Ruth of Ultrarunning ![]() Let’s break down this year’s data fun, starting with the best women’s performances ever. I didn’t ask him whether he went on dates in high school, but based on his statistics knowledge, I think we all know the answer. He’s back after last year’s time predictions, which were shockingly accurate. My co-conspirator is Marshall Burke, associate professor of Global Environmental Policy at Stanford University, whose work on wildfire smoke you may have seen over the last few weeks in outlets like the New York Times. Because in this article, we’re going to analyze some advanced statistics for the Western States 100, with the help of some sabermetric principles along the way. Sabermetrics never did me much good in life… UNTIL TODAY. I may not have gone to many school dances, but I could talk for 3 hours on the merits of Wins Above Replacement in baseball players before 1950. For those of you who went on dates in high school, sabermetrics is the analysis of baseball statistics to develop an advanced understanding of the game (like in Moneyball ). When I was a kid, I was obsessed with sabermetrics. Heading out the door? Read this article on the new Outside+ app available now on iOS devices for members!
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